SP-BSP coalition: In UP, SP and BSP are contesting different elections. There were roughly 240 candidates getting the chance. This time, between the two, the two parties, 42-42 i.e. total 84 candidates have come on the road in one stroke.
All You Need to Know about the SP-BSP coalition
The mood of UP’s ‘political market’ has changed. This time the candidates’ fear of ‘consumption’ will be low. To understand these new developments of UP, we have to go back in the background. Actually, since the 1990s, after the Congress’s marginalization of the Congress in the state, the main battle here has been between SP-BSP and BJP. Therefore, the candidates used to compete for a ticket from these parties.
These three parties have been contesting different elections in all the seats of the state. So, roughly 240 candidates used to get the opportunity to try their luck. This time, due to the SP-BSP coalition, the two parties have decided to contest the elections in 38-38 seats. The result was that 42-42 from both the parties ie, 84 candidates have come on the road in one stroke.
To avoid ‘anti-incumbency’ factor, BJP may also cut tickets for 30 to 35 MPs. It is obvious that only the Congress can save these candidates as the fourth option, but the adjustment of so many candidates cannot be done in the Congress too. Those small parties in the state, in the Assembly elections, they succeed in winning their area of influence, but in the Lok Sabha elections, these parties do not make the pulse of the dal. Independent candidates in the assembly elections also have the potential to win, but it is not easy to win in the Lok Sabha elections as independents.
SP-BSP coalition, Why adjustment is difficult?
Those candidates who do not get tickets from their parties will have only two options. One- accept the party’s decision. Two- Find your new stick. Accepting the first option would mean losing your politics. If for some reason the main parties have to cut their old people’s ticket in the Assembly elections, then the expectation of their adjustment is made when the government is formed. But in the Lok Sabha elections, the central government has to be formed and it can not be possible to accommodate so many people. In this case, most candidates will be compelled to choose the second option. But big question is, where are the opportunities available?
Those who are out of BJP will naturally have their first choice of the SP-BSP coalition, but there is no scope for them to become a place for them. SP-BSP coalition will have only 38-38 seats, for whom the ticket will be getting a fight between their own original cadres. On the other hand, the biggest difficulty for these 84 candidates, who are deprived of getting tickets from SP-BSP, will not be accepted by the defectors from each other.
30-35 BJP MPs cut shortage ticket?
After cutting tickets for 30-35 existing MPs in BJP, the party’s first priority will be to accommodate their own cadre on the contenders who will create scope for them. For this, the party is taking names of three most popular leaders on every parliamentary seat through the Namo App so that it is easy to decide the name of the candidate at the time of the ticket distribution. It is natural for grassroots level workers to get dissatisfaction with the tickets given to the other parties given by the other parties, and the BJP leadership would want to avoid this risk. So if some people outside the SP-BSP will get a place in BJP, then that number can only be between 5 to 8.
Akhilesh and Mayawati’s threat of displeasure
A section of the party is of the view that the MPs who have been deprived of their party ticket due to negative reports, giving their mark to those MPs will not be a wise choice to contest elections. Even SP-BSP coalition will try to avoid giving the ticket to such leaders who, in the party, are in danger of resentment of Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati. Obviously, in view of all these equations, the availability of the candidates for the Lok Sabha elections will be high and the demand will be low. Whenever such a situation comes in the market, prices fall. This time it is going to happen with the candidates.